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股民長線投資求安全不能只投美股
股民長線投資求安全不能只投美股
If you think U.S. stocks are 'safer' than those in foreign countries, you may
want to reconsider.
如果你覺得美國股票比其他國家股票“安全”，或許你該重新想一想了。
Research shows that the safest investment portfolio--one with the highest
potential return and the lowest risk--is likely to be heavier on international
stocks and lighter on U.S. stocks.
研究表明，最安全（潛在回報(bào)最高、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最低）的投資組合可能是輕倉持有美國股票，重倉持有其他國家股票。
Yes, many international stock markets, especially in emerging markets such as
Russia and Brazil, have been in turmoil lately. And yes, over the past couple of
years, the U.S. stock market has been a great place to be. But short-term
performance is a poor basis for long-term investment. The long-term story
suggests something quite different.
沒錯(cuò)，很多國際股票市場最近經(jīng)歷了動(dòng)蕩，特別是俄羅斯和巴西等新興市場的股市。同樣沒錯(cuò)的是，過去幾年美國股市是一個(gè)不錯(cuò)的投資點(diǎn)。但短期表現(xiàn)不太適合當(dāng)作長線投資的依據(jù)。股市的長期表現(xiàn)給人的是相當(dāng)不同的啟示。
Periodic Rebalancing
定期再平衡
I have lately been on a quest for the perfect 'all weather' investment
portfolio, one that needs no more than periodic rebalancing. I accepted that, in
addition to assets such as bonds and inflation-protected securities, a big part
of that portfolio should be invested in stocks. But then I asked myself: Which
stocks? Which markets?
最近我一直在追尋完美的“全天候”投資組合，這種投資組合只需要定期做一下再平衡就可以了。我承認(rèn)，除了債券和通脹保值證券等資產(chǎn)之外，相當(dāng)大一部分資金應(yīng)當(dāng)投資于股票。不過我又問自己：投哪些股票？投哪些市場的股票呢？
I found myself reading research conducted separately by two investment managers,
Joachim Klement, chief investment officer at Wellershoff & Partners, an
investment consultancy in Zurich with $10 billion in funds under advisement, and
Mebane Faber, CIO at Cambria Investment Management in El Segundo, Calif., which
manages $335 million.
我讀到了兩名投資經(jīng)理分別進(jìn)行的研究。他們是蘇黎世投資顧問公司W(wǎng)ellershoff
&Partners（管理資產(chǎn)規(guī)模100億美元）的首席投資長喬吉姆·克萊門特(Joachim Klement)，以及加州埃爾塞貢多(El
Segundo)投資管理公司Cambria Investment Management（管理資產(chǎn)規(guī)模3.35億美元）的首席投資長梅班·費(fèi)伯(Mebane
Faber)。
Both men looked at the performance of more than 30 different stock markets
around the world over long periods.
兩人都考察了全世界30多個(gè)不同股市的長期表現(xiàn)。
Among their findings: First, no stock market provided the best return in all
periods. On the contrary, the markets of different countries and different
regions tended to fare better at different times. (So, for example, Japan did
better in the 1980s, the U.S. in the 1990s and emerging markets after 2000.)
他們的發(fā)現(xiàn)包括：首先，沒有哪個(gè)股市在所有時(shí)期的回報(bào)率都是最高的。相反，不同國家和不同地區(qū)的市場往往是在不同的時(shí)期有較好的表現(xiàn)。（比如日本表現(xiàn)較好的時(shí)候是在80年代，美國是在90年代，新興市場是在2000年過后。）
Second, performance in the past has depended to a substantial degree on starting
valuations. You generally did best by investing in the stock markets that were
cheapest in relation to corporate fundamentals such as earnings and net
assets--and you generally did worst by investing in those markets which were
expensive on those measures.
其次，過去的表現(xiàn)在很大程度上取決于初始估值。投資那些相對(duì)于利潤和
資產(chǎn)等公司基本面估值最低的股市，總體上表現(xiàn)最好；投資從這些指標(biāo)看顯得很昂貴的市場，總體上表現(xiàn)最差。
Which markets are cheap, and which are expensive, has varied over time, and the
performance gaps have been substantial. Over five years or so, those who
invested in stock markets when they were very expensive were lucky to break even
after counting inflation. But those who invested in markets when they were very
cheap often racked up double-digit returns for many years.
哪些市場便宜、哪些市場昂貴，會(huì)隨著時(shí)間的變化而變化，而且投資業(yè)績的差距也是相當(dāng)大的。在股市非常昂貴的時(shí)候投資的人，經(jīng)過五年左右的時(shí)間后，扣除通脹因素，能夠不虧不賺就算幸運(yùn)了。但在股市非常便宜的時(shí)候投資的人常常能夠多年獲得雙位數(shù)的回報(bào)。
This has enormous implications for investors. Far from being safe by sticking to
their home market, they would do better to focus on the least-expensive markets
and avoid the most expensive.
這對(duì)投資者來說有著豐富的含義。他們最好是拋棄堅(jiān)守本土市場以求安全的辦法，側(cè)重于估值最低的市場，避開估值最高的市場。
Taken to extremes, this would mean that today one would invest large amounts in
stock markets such as those of Russia, Turkey, Austria, Greece and Indonesia, as
they are inexpensive, and very little here in the U.S., which is comparatively
expensive on many measures.
極端地說，這意味著如今投資者應(yīng)當(dāng)大額投資俄羅斯、土耳其、澳大利亞、希臘和印度尼西亞等估值低的市場，非常少量地投資于美國市場，因?yàn)閺暮芏嘀笜?biāo)來看，美國市場都顯得相對(duì)昂貴。
It would be a bold investor who took such a gamble. (I wouldn't.) But there are
other, less alarming ways of taking advantage of this research.
如此下注的人是勇敢的投資者。（我不會(huì)如此下注。）但利用這一研究獲利還有其他一些不那么會(huì)讓人心慌的方法。
A Balanced Approach
均衡方針
One can benefit simply by managing a balanced global portfolio and then
adjusting it roughly annually--selling a little of whatever has done best, and
buying a little of whatever has done worst--to maintain roughly equal
allocations.
獲利的方法可以很簡單，即維持一個(gè)均衡的全球性投資組合，然后大概每年調(diào)整一次，也就是賣掉一點(diǎn)表現(xiàn)最好的，買進(jìn)一些表現(xiàn)最差的，從而使各類配置保持大致均等。
In the past, this strategy would have smoothed returns over time. For example,
U.S. investors would have benefited from the stronger performance of European
and Asian markets in the 1970s and 1980s, and of emerging markets after 2000.
在過去，這樣的策略在經(jīng)過一定時(shí)間過后將會(huì)獲得平穩(wěn)的回報(bào)。比如美國投資者會(huì)因此而受益于70年代至80年代歐亞市場、2000年過后新興市場的較佳表現(xiàn)。
A portfolio invested equally in the MSCI U.S., European and Pacific indexes, and
rebalanced once a year, would have saved U.S. investors from the calamitous
slump on Wall Street from 1969 through 1982. Balancing between the U.S.,
developed markets and emerging markets would have helped them after 2000.
平均投資于摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)美國、歐洲和太平洋指數(shù)并每年做一次再平衡的投資組合，會(huì)使美國投資者躲過從1969年到1982年的華爾街股災(zāi)。2000年過后，均衡投資于美國市場、發(fā)達(dá)國家市場和新興國家市場會(huì)給他們帶來好處。
On both occasions, those who stuck solely to U.S. stocks ended up losing
purchasing power over many years.
在上面兩種情況下，堅(jiān)持只投資美股的投資者經(jīng)過多年之后都失去了購買力。
Alas, investing this way is a little harder than you might expect. Most 'global'
stock funds are heavily weighted toward stocks, and markets, with the highest
values.
可惜如此投資可能要比你想象的難一點(diǎn)。大多數(shù)“全球型”股票基金都重倉持有估值最高的股票和股市。
Today a typical global stock fund has about half its money in U.S. stocks and
less than 10% in emerging markets. Such funds invest more in a few giant
stocks--such as Apple, Google and Microsoft--than they do in most countries. And
they won't automatically rebalance in the way one would like. On the contrary,
as stock or market X keeps rising, it just becomes a bigger and bigger share of
the index.
今天一只典型的全球型股票基金一半左右的資金都是投資于美股，只有不到10%投資于新興市場。這類基金對(duì)幾只巨盤股（如蘋果(Apple)、谷歌(Google)和微軟(Microsoft)）的投資超過了對(duì)大多數(shù)國家的投資。而且它們不會(huì)像你希望的那樣自動(dòng)進(jìn)行再平衡。相反，當(dāng)某只股票或某個(gè)股市不斷上漲的時(shí)候，它在投資組合中的比例只會(huì)越來越大。
What are the alternatives? One could randomly pick, say, 50 stocks from around
the world, and invest in them equally. Or one could use exchange-traded funds to
invest in five or 10 national markets with (one hopes) low correlations--from
Japan to the Middle East, Latin America to Europe. With online stock trades just
$8 apiece, these could be reasonably low-cost options.
有何替代途徑？可以從全世界隨機(jī)挑選一些股票，比如說是50只，然后平均投資于這些股票。也可以利用交易所交易基金投資五個(gè)或10個(gè)相關(guān)性低（但愿吧）的國別市場，從日本到中東，從拉丁美洲到歐洲都可以。在網(wǎng)上股票交易八美元一筆的情況下，這些都可能是成本還算低廉的選擇。
Mr. Klement says for those who want to keep things simple, his firm often
recommends investing equal amounts in low-cost funds tracking five major
indexes: the S&P 500, London's FTSE 100 index, Europe's EuroStoxx 50,
Japan's Nikkei 225 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
克萊門特說，對(duì)于不想把問題復(fù)雜化的投資者，他的公司常常建議等額投資于跟蹤五大股指且費(fèi)用低廉的基金。這五大股指分別是倫敦的富時(shí)100指數(shù)(FTSE
100)，歐洲的歐元區(qū)斯托克50指數(shù)(EuroStoxx 50)，日本的日經(jīng)225指數(shù)(Nikkei 225)，以及摩根士丹利資本國際新興市場指數(shù)(MSCI
Emerging Markets)。
This portfolio, rebalanced periodically, 'beats a traditional portfolio by a
significant margin over time, ' he says.
他說，這樣一個(gè)投資組合經(jīng)過定期再平衡，“一定時(shí)間過后的表現(xiàn)明顯超出傳統(tǒng)投資組合”。
For example, according to MSCI data, from Dec. 31, 1999, through Dec. 31, 2013,
this strategy would have produced investment gains of about 70%, compared with
less than 50% for U.S. stocks alone.
比如從MSCI數(shù)據(jù)來看，從1999年12月31日到2013年12月31日，這條策略的投資回報(bào)約為70%，相比之下僅投美股的回報(bào)率不到50%。
希尼爾翻譯公司 2014-5-15
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