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亞洲降息潮還將持續(xù)多久
Asian central bank watchers are having
a tough time deciding where to look.
那些關(guān)注亞洲央行的人們，眼下很難決定到底該關(guān)注哪一家。
Yesterday, South Korea became the latest to surprise the market with a rate cut,
following in the footsteps of Thailand, China and India — all of which have
loosened policy unexpectedly in the past two weeks alone. Indonesia’s February
move to lower borrowing costs is also still fresh in the mind.
昨天，韓國(guó)成為繼泰國(guó)、中國(guó)和印度之后，最新一個(gè)宣布降息令市場(chǎng)震動(dòng)的國(guó)家。在過(guò)去短短兩周內(nèi)，上述三國(guó)都出人意料地推出了寬松政策。而此前印尼于2月份的降息仍歷歷在目。
There are some common threads that help explain Asia’s easing path — such as
falling inflation, stuttering growth and fluctuations in global currency
markets. But country-specific issues are also playing their part.
一些常見原因能夠解釋亞洲的寬松政策路線——包括通脹率下跌、增長(zhǎng)遇阻以及全球貨幣市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)。不過(guò)，各國(guó)也面臨各自的具體問(wèn)題。
“There are some concerns about growth and exchange rate competitiveness”, said
Krystal Tan at Capital Economics. “Now that inflation is low, it’s given policy
makers an opportunity to act.”
凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的Krystal
Tan表示：“存在著一些對(duì)增長(zhǎng)和匯率競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的擔(dān)憂。既然通脹現(xiàn)在這么低，政策制定者就有了行動(dòng)的機(jī)會(huì)?！?br>
For South Korea, the tumbling yen has prompted questions about export costs,
while domestic growth has been disappointing. This week’s cut takes benchmark
rates down to 1.75 per cent, a record low for Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
對(duì)韓國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，在國(guó)內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)令人失望之際，日元暴跌引發(fā)了有關(guān)韓國(guó)出口成本的問(wèn)題。本周韓國(guó)將基準(zhǔn)利率降至1.75%，對(duì)這個(gè)亞洲第四大經(jīng)濟(jì)體來(lái)說(shuō)，這是個(gè)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的低點(diǎn)。
Thailand, too, is worried about growth, with exports and private consumption
both weaker than expected at the start of the year. That the baht has held up
better than some other Asian currencies against the rising dollar may also have
played into the central bank’s thinking.
由于年初出口和私人消費(fèi)雙雙低于預(yù)期，泰國(guó)也同樣擔(dān)心增長(zhǎng)的問(wèn)題。相對(duì)于不斷走強(qiáng)的美元，泰銖的表現(xiàn)比部分其他亞洲貨幣要堅(jiān)挺一些，這可能也是泰國(guó)央行考慮的因素之一。
For India, falling inflation has presented an opportunity to give the economy a
helping hand, as the Modi-led government looks to get the country back on track
as quickly as possible.
對(duì)印度來(lái)說(shuō)，在莫迪(Modi)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的政府尋求令該國(guó)盡快重返正軌之際，不斷下跌的通脹為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)創(chuàng)造了機(jī)遇。
In contrast, Chinese policy makers have been growing nervous about the prospect
of outright deflation, with a contraction in producer prices now entering its
third year. Growth is stalling, the housing market is still in a funk and the
renminbi, on a trade-weighted basis at least, is at a record high. Looser policy
may also be designed to balance tighter liquidity caused by accelerating capital
outflows.
相比之下，中國(guó)政策制定者則是出于對(duì)全面通縮前景的日益擔(dān)憂——中國(guó)生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格已開啟了第三個(gè)下滑之年。增長(zhǎng)陷入停滯，樓市仍然低迷，人民幣匯率則處于前所未有的高點(diǎn)——至少?gòu)馁Q(mào)易加權(quán)的角度來(lái)說(shuō)是如此。除上述因素以外，更寬松的政策也可能意在平衡資金外流加速導(dǎo)致的流動(dòng)性緊張。
Economists expect more cuts from some countries — most likely India and China —
while others are tipped to stay put.
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，部分國(guó)家（最有可能的是印度和中國(guó)）將采取更多降息舉措，而其他國(guó)家則應(yīng)該會(huì)維持原狀。
The Philippines, where growth has remained strong, will have one eye on its high
rate of credit growth, while recent currency weakness in oil-exporting Malaysia
makes lower rates a less attractive option, even as the economy slows.
增長(zhǎng)保持強(qiáng)勁的菲律賓將會(huì)密切關(guān)注其信貸的高速增長(zhǎng)。對(duì)于石油出口國(guó)馬來(lái)西亞來(lái)說(shuō)，即便經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，該國(guó)貨幣近期的疲軟也降低了降息的吸引力。
With rates now at record lows and household debt levels already high in both
South Korea and Thailand, further moves are not expected there either.
至于韓國(guó)和泰國(guó)，由于利率已經(jīng)處于創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)，居民債務(wù)水平也已經(jīng)很高，預(yù)計(jì)這兩國(guó)也不會(huì)進(jìn)一步降息。
“Unless recession risk escalates, we don’t see a clear path for another rate
cut,” said Citibank economists following the Bank of Thailand’s move this week.
在泰國(guó)央行(Bank of
Thailand)本周降息之后，花旗銀行(Citibank)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家曾表示：“除非衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加劇，否則我們看不到（泰國(guó)）進(jìn)一步降息的明確信號(hào)?！?br>
Policy makers across the region will also be mindful of what happened in the
spring of 2013, when Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve,
first used the word “tapering”. This signal that quantitative easing had peaked
prompted rapid capital flight from emerging markets, with India and Indonesia
both forced into emergency rates rises to steady their currencies.
亞洲政策制定者還將銘記2013年春季發(fā)生的事。當(dāng)時(shí)，時(shí)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)主席的本?伯南克(Ben
Bernanke)首次使用了“逐步縮減QE規(guī)模”(tapering)一詞。這一量化寬松見頂?shù)男盘?hào)曾導(dǎo)致資本迅速逃離新興市場(chǎng)，印度和印尼兩國(guó)都曾被迫因此緊急提升利率，以穩(wěn)定本國(guó)貨幣的匯率。
希尼爾翻譯公司
2015-03-04
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