青島希尼爾翻譯公司（theheretical.com）整理發(fā)布  2015-10-30

希尼爾翻譯公司（theheretical.com）2015年10月30日了解到：最近幾周，太平洋兩岸的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩令人頭暈?zāi)垦?。The volatility has been dizzying in recent weeks inmarkets on both sides of the Pacific.

n the wake of the totally predictable decision from the Federal Reserve not to raise interestrates, hedge funds with consensus trades involving bullish US dollar bets and bearishpositions in virtually everything else, including energy, basic materials and emerging marketcurrencies, had their worst week in a while. For example, the Indonesian rupiah, shorthand forevery disappointing commodity-based emerging market economy, shot up 9 per cent beforethe cynicism about the prospects of emerging markets returned in the middle of last week.
在完全在意料當(dāng)中的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)暫不加息決定出爐后，那些一致押注美元走強(qiáng)、做空幾乎其他所有資產(chǎn)——包括能源、基礎(chǔ)原料和新興市場(chǎng)貨幣——的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)歷了一段時(shí)間來(lái)最難熬的一周。例如，印尼盾匯率(可代表所有表現(xiàn)不佳的以大宗商品為基礎(chǔ)的新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體)一度飆升9%，直到上周周中，人們才再度不看好新興市場(chǎng)的前景。
Meanwhile, the renminbi remained stable. To some this was a sign that the People’s Bank ofChina was spending dwindling reserves on supporting the currency after changing the way theexchange rate is set back in August. That change, which was a move toward a more marketoriented way of setting the rate, indirectly led to a 2 per cent drop in the value of the renminbiagainst the dollar.
同時(shí)，人民幣仍保持穩(wěn)定。在一些人看來(lái)，這表明在8月份的匯率設(shè)定機(jī)制改革之后，中國(guó)央行正在動(dòng)用不斷減少的外匯儲(chǔ)備支撐人民幣匯率。那次改革是向更加市場(chǎng)化的匯率設(shè)定機(jī)制邁出的一步，它間接地導(dǎo)致人民幣兌美元匯率下跌了2%。
In addition, recent data from China hardly support the dire case for the mainland. TheSeptember trade surplus jumped to more than $60bn, near its highest level ever, according toJPMorgan, and third-quarter GDP growth beat expectations at 6.9 per cent. Capital outflows at$43bn were far less than pessimists anticipated. The fear that companies selling renminbi torepay dollar debt before the cost rose would trigger a vicious cycle for the currency receded.Meanwhile, although China’s equity market is not ready for prime time, by happy contrast, theChinese government bond market is growing up. The debt market can only benefit fromBeijing’s desire for the renminbi to join the select group of countries whose currencies are partof the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights. Making its bond market moreliquid, transparent and attractive necessarily follows on from that desire.
此外，中國(guó)近期發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)基本上不支持看跌人民幣。摩根大通(JPMorgan)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，9月份中國(guó)貿(mào)易順差猛增至逾600億美元，接近最高紀(jì)錄。第三季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到6.9%，強(qiáng)于預(yù)期。資本外流為430億美元，規(guī)模比悲觀者預(yù)期的小得多。人們?cè)鴵?dān)心，中國(guó)企業(yè)趕在償債成本升高前賣出人民幣償還美元債務(wù)的行為，會(huì)將人民幣推入惡性循環(huán)。這種擔(dān)憂已經(jīng)減弱了。另一方面，盡管中國(guó)股市還未做好迎來(lái)“黃金時(shí)段”的準(zhǔn)備，但幸運(yùn)的是，中國(guó)政府債券市場(chǎng)正在發(fā)展壯大。中國(guó)政府渴望人民幣被納入國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)特別提款權(quán)(SDR)貨幣籃子，這種渴望只會(huì)給債券市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)好處。出于這種渴望，中國(guó)接下來(lái)必然會(huì)提高其債券市場(chǎng)的流動(dòng)性、透明度和吸引力。
China continues to look far better, in fact, than most of its indebted neighbours. “China’soverall external indebtedness is limited and the debt servicing capacity of the country as awhole remains intact,” noted China International Capital Corporation in a report. “China’sforeign exchange res-erves are still more than twice the size needed to cover all its externaldebt and four times its foreign currency debt.”
事實(shí)上，中國(guó)的形勢(shì)看起來(lái)仍比多數(shù)債臺(tái)高筑的鄰國(guó)好得多?！爸袊?guó)外債總體水平仍然不高，中國(guó)作為整體的償債能力也未受到明顯影響，”中金公司(CICC)在一份報(bào)告中指出，“中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備仍可覆蓋全部外債余額的兩倍以上、所有外幣外債的四倍以上?！?span id="v8dleoi" class="style43">
Moreover, as the renminbi internationalises, other central banks will need to acquire renminbiassets, providing a bid both for the currency and for its debt. China’s government debt marketis already by far the largest bond market in the emerging world. Moreover, while the stockmarket continues to gyrate, the bond market has been less volatile and actually offers positivereturns. That is significant in a world where positive returns on government bonds can nolonger be taken for granted, thanks to quantitative easing programmes in the developedworld.
此外，隨著人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)，其他央行將需要購(gòu)買人民幣資產(chǎn)，這對(duì)人民幣和人民幣債券都形成了需求。在新興世界，中國(guó)政府債券市場(chǎng)已然是規(guī)模遙遙領(lǐng)先的最大債券市場(chǎng)。而且，在股市繼續(xù)震蕩之際，債市的波動(dòng)卻沒(méi)那么大，實(shí)際上提供了正回報(bào)。這一點(diǎn)很重要。由于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家實(shí)施了量化寬松計(jì)劃，在當(dāng)今世界上，政府債券回報(bào)為正已不再是理所當(dāng)然之事。
“The China government bond index has been steadily climbing higher over the last threequarters,” note analysts at Citigroup. “After nine months, the benchmark has generated a totalreturn of 5.16 per cent in local currency terms and even remains in the black in US dollarcurrency terms.” That record compares favourably with US credit indices or the Citi WorldGovernment Bond index, the report adds. China’s capital controls mean access to the market islimited, especially for foreign investors, and the market is not yet included in global benchmarkindices. The dominant players tend to be buy-and-hold investors, particularly domestic banks.Still, though, that just “means the technicals are mind-boggling”, according to Jan Dehn,London-based head of research for Ashmore Investment Management, who labels the marketthe best in the world. “Hardly anyone has exposure.”
“過(guò)去三個(gè)季度，中國(guó)政府債券指數(shù)一直在穩(wěn)步攀升，”花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup)分析師指出，“9個(gè)月后，這一基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)以人民幣計(jì)已產(chǎn)生了5.16%的總回報(bào)，即使以美元計(jì)，回報(bào)也是正的?！被ㄆ斓膱?bào)告補(bǔ)充稱，這一成績(jī)優(yōu)于美國(guó)信用指數(shù)或花旗全球政府債券指數(shù)(Citi World Government Bond index)。由于中國(guó)存在資本管制，該市場(chǎng)的準(zhǔn)入受到限制，尤其是對(duì)外國(guó)投資者而言，而且該市場(chǎng)尚未被納入全球基準(zhǔn)債券指數(shù)。中國(guó)政府債券市場(chǎng)的主要參與者是“買入并持有”型投資者，尤其是中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的銀行。不過(guò)，在安石投資管理公司(AshmoreInvestment Management)駐倫敦的研究主管簡(jiǎn)德恩(Jan Dehn)看來(lái)，這只是“意味著在技術(shù)層面上令人頭疼”。德恩認(rèn)為，中國(guó)政府債券市場(chǎng)是世界上最棒的市場(chǎng)?！皫缀鯖](méi)有誰(shuí)建立了敞口?！?span id="t5kb3wx" class="style43">
Moreover, China is one of the few places in the world where there is the possibility of capitalgains on bond investments since interest rates are not at zero and still have further to fall,given the continuing deflation risks the country faces. At some point, perhaps the Chinesecentral bank will show as little regard for savers as the US Federal Reserve, European CentralBank, Swiss National Bank and other monetary authorities that are believers in artificiallylowering the price of government debt. But not yet.
此外，中國(guó)是世界上少有的幾個(gè)債券投資可能實(shí)現(xiàn)資本收益的國(guó)家之一，原因是該國(guó)的利率并非為零，而且考慮到該國(guó)面臨持續(xù)的通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，該國(guó)的利率仍有可能下調(diào)。有朝一日，中國(guó)央行或許會(huì)像美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)、歐洲央行(ECB)、瑞士央行(SNB)等相信應(yīng)當(dāng)人為壓低政府債券價(jià)格的貨幣當(dāng)局一樣，不把儲(chǔ)戶的利益放在心上。但那一日還未到來(lái)。

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