青島希尼爾翻譯公司（theheretical.com）整理發(fā)布2016-05-04

希尼爾翻譯公司（theheretical.com）2016年5月4日了解到：At the beginning of the year western commodity traders knew China, theworld’s biggest consumer of raw materials, would play a decisive role in thedirection of markets. What they did not know was that it would be Chineseinvestors as much as the country’s economic prospects driving prices.

在今年年初，西方大宗商品交易商知道，中國(guó)這個(gè)全球最大的原材料消費(fèi)國(guó)，將在市場(chǎng)方向上扮演決定性角色。他們當(dāng)時(shí)不知道的是，驅(qū)動(dòng)價(jià)格的不僅是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景，還有中國(guó)投資者。

In the past month a near-mania has gripped the country’s commodityfutures markets, as an army of day traders and yield-hungry wealth managershave poured into the lightly regulated sector, often with astonishing results.

在過(guò)去一個(gè)月里，一種近乎瘋狂的氛圍籠罩了中國(guó)大宗商品期貨市場(chǎng)。一群短線交易者和渴求收益的財(cái)富管理公司涌入這個(gè)監(jiān)管較輕的市場(chǎng)，常常制造驚人的結(jié)果。

Daily trading volumes in some commodity futures contracts such as ironore have been so large that sometimes they have exceeded China’s annualimports. Turnover in Shanghai steel futures one day last week eclipsed allshares traded on China’s equity markets.

鐵礦石等一些大宗商品期貨的日交易額大幅飆升，有時(shí)甚至?xí)^(guò)中國(guó)年度進(jìn)口額。上海鋼鐵期貨在上周某一天的交易額超過(guò)了中國(guó)股市的總成交額。

Alarmed by the surge in trading, which has parallels with the lead-up tolast year’s equity market meltdown, Chinese exchanges have moved quickly toincrease transaction fees and margin requirements on futures contracts to tryto cool some of the speculative fervour.

此番交易飆升與去年股市暴跌前的情形如出一轍，令中國(guó)各大期貨交易所警鈴大作，它們迅速采取行動(dòng)，提高期貨合約的交易手續(xù)費(fèi)和保證金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，試圖為投機(jī)熱降溫。

While this has removed some of the froth from prices, it is not clearwhether this will deter the new band of investors, who have turned away fromequity markets after draconian rules were imposed last year. At the same timeBeijing wants to place China at the centre of global commodity markets and haveprices determined and settled in renminbi.

盡管這種做法消除了一些價(jià)格泡沫，但目前尚不清楚這是否會(huì)嚇阻新的投資者群體進(jìn)入，后者在去年推行嚴(yán)厲法規(guī)之后從股市轉(zhuǎn)戰(zhàn)而來(lái)。與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)政府希望讓中國(guó)進(jìn)入全球大宗商品市場(chǎng)的中心，并用人民幣為大宗商品定價(jià)和結(jié)算。

All of this could have far-reaching consequences for the way rawmaterials are priced, and risks driving up the costs of commodities that arethe building blocks of the global economy.

所有這些可能對(duì)原材料定價(jià)方式產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響，而且有可能推升作為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)基石的大宗商品的價(jià)格。

“This growth poses multiple dangers to global commodity pricing givenhow less regulated and therefore less protective the Chinese regimes are forinvestors who are perhaps the most speculative in the world,” analysts at Citisay in a report this week.

花旗(Citi)分析師在本周的一篇報(bào)告中表示：“鑒于中國(guó)期貨市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管要少得多，從而對(duì)可能是全球投機(jī)性最強(qiáng)的投資者的保護(hù)也要低得多，這種（交易量的）增加對(duì)全球大宗商品定價(jià)造成了多重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！?br>
Western regulators have been wrestling with the problem of thefinancialisation of commodities for years, in some cases introducing positionlimits and curbs. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan saidspeculation was responsible for the rapid move up in oil prices in late2007-early 2008 when they reached $145 a barrel. China is just starting tograpple with these issues.

西方監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)多年來(lái)一直在應(yīng)對(duì)大宗商品的金融化問(wèn)題，在某些情況下還出臺(tái)了倉(cāng)位限制措施。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)前主席艾倫?格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)表示，2007年末至2008年初油價(jià)的快速上漲是投機(jī)造成的——當(dāng)時(shí)油價(jià)達(dá)到了每桶145美元。中國(guó)只是剛開始應(yīng)對(duì)這些問(wèn)題。

Western commodity traders were alerted to the power of Chinese investorswhen a group of hedge funds led by Shanghai Chaos launched a bear raid oncopper early last year.

當(dāng)去年年初以上?；煦缤顿Y公司(Shanghai Chaos)為首的一群對(duì)沖基金做空銅的時(shí)候，西方大宗商品交易商對(duì)中國(guó)投資者的實(shí)力感到震驚。

But this time the interest has gone mainstream, with wealth managementand retail investors piling in on domestic bourses such as the Shanghai FuturesExchange.

但這次的投機(jī)興趣來(lái)自主流領(lǐng)域，財(cái)富管理公司和散戶投資者紛紛涌入上海期貨交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)等國(guó)內(nèi)交易所。

The trigger for greater speculative interest in commodities can betraced back to the credit surge engineered by Chinese policymakers this year toprop up the economy and its currency.

大宗商品投機(jī)興趣上升的誘因，可以追溯至中國(guó)政策制定者今年為提振經(jīng)濟(jì)和人民幣匯率而主導(dǎo)的信貸激增。

This led to a pick-up in construction activity and stoked investorappetite for ways to bet on the Chinese economy.

這導(dǎo)致建筑活動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)，并激發(fā)投資者設(shè)法押注中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的興趣。

“In our view, it’s simply commodity futures’ turn given upside elsewhereappears fairly limited while prices of many raw materials, before the latestrebound, had dropped by more than 70 per cent from their peak levels in 2011,”according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林(Bank ofAmerica Merrill Lynch)的分析師表示：“就我們看來(lái)，這只是輪到大宗商品期貨了，因?yàn)槠渌袌?chǎng)的上升空間看起來(lái)相當(dāng)有限，同時(shí)與2011年的峰值水平相比，許多原材料的價(jià)格在最近這波反彈之前下跌了逾70%?！?br>
There certainly appears to have been a marked rise in new participantsin commodities and the scale and the magnitude of that surge suggests they aredeploying capital in markets they’re unfamiliar with, says Scott Hobart,portfolio manager at HFZ, which trades commodities both in China and globally. “There is aclear thirst for short-term trading and short-term risk.”

HFZ的投資組合經(jīng)理斯科特?霍巴特(Scott Hobart)表示，顯然大宗商品的新參與者顯著增加了，而交易量飆升的規(guī)模和范圍表明，他們正在不熟悉的市場(chǎng)配置資本?！八麄兠黠@對(duì)短期交易和短期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有急切的胃口”。HFZ在中國(guó)和全球開展大宗商品交易。

Some of the capital is probably from groups of high-yielding wealthmanagement products sold by Chinese banks, according to Logan Wright, directorof China markets research at Rhodium Group in Hong Kong.

榮鼎咨詢(RhodiumGroup)駐香港的中國(guó)市場(chǎng)研究總監(jiān)洛根?萊特(Logan Wright)表示，其中一些資本可能來(lái)自中國(guó)各銀行銷售的高收益理財(cái)產(chǎn)品。

Third-party financial institutions that invest the money have beenforced into speculative strategies to deliver targeted rates of return for thebank investors, he adds.

他補(bǔ)充稱，負(fù)責(zé)資金投資的第三方金融機(jī)構(gòu)被迫采取投機(jī)策略，為這些銀行渠道的投資者實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)回報(bào)率。

China’s domestic bond market has been hit by defaults by state-owned orpartially state-owned companies in the past year —in a market whereinvestors assumed for years that the government would never allow a default.

在過(guò)去一年里，中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)債券市場(chǎng)遭受國(guó)有企業(yè)或者國(guó)有參股企業(yè)違約的沖擊——在中國(guó)債市，投資者多年來(lái)一直以為，中國(guó)政府將永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)允許出現(xiàn)違約。

That has dimmed the appeal of investing in bonds. Equally Chineseequities have also fallen more than 30 per cent in the past year.

這削弱了債券投資的吸引力。同樣中國(guó)股市也在過(guò)去一年下跌逾30%。

The impact of this speculative frenzy has not just been felt infinancial markets. The rise in steel prices, up more than 50 per cent this yearafter six years of losses, has led mills in China to restart or increaseproduction just as the world struggles with a glut of the metal.

此次投機(jī)狂熱的影響不僅僅體現(xiàn)在金融市場(chǎng)。經(jīng)歷了6年的下跌以后，鋼價(jià)今年上漲了50%。鋼價(jià)上漲促使中國(guó)的鋼廠重啟生產(chǎn)或者增加產(chǎn)量，而全球還在艱難應(yīng)對(duì)鋼鐵過(guò)剩問(wèn)題。

The world may have to get used to pricing power shifting east and theincreased volatility it will bring. China’s commodity exchanges are seeking toopen up to foreign traders and an international oil futures contract isexpected to be launched this year in Shanghai.

世界可能不得不適應(yīng)定價(jià)權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)向東方，以及由此導(dǎo)致的波動(dòng)性加大。中國(guó)的大宗商品交易所正尋求向外國(guó)交易商開放，預(yù)計(jì)上海將在今年推出國(guó)際原油期貨合約。